Why Bayern Munich stand above Champions League challengers

A little over eight weeks since Bayern Munich lifted the trophy in Lisbon, the Champions League is back. What’s more, given the glut of goals witnessed so far in Europe’s top leagues, this group stage could be one of the more entertaining in recent memory. The draw at the start of the month has served up some eye-catching clashes, but the main question remains whether anyone can topple the reigning champions.

Of course, it must be said that every season the holders come into the tournament looking the strongest (with the possible exception Real Madrid in 2018 following the departure of Zinedine Zidane and Cristiano Ronaldo). However, the manner in which Hansi Flick’s Bayern side fought off the competition in 2019/20 has earned them a level of respect rarely witnessed before a ball has been kicked.

Bayern Munich’s journey to Champions League glory

The 2019/20 edition saw Bayern become the first side to ever win the European trophy with a 100% record. The Bavarian giants won all 11 of their matches en route to their triumph, scoring 24 goals in six group games and a further 19 in just five knockout matches.

Just the sixth side to ever win all six matches during the group stage, their outstanding 7-2 win at Tottenham was not enough to keep manager Niko Kovač in a job. Another former player, Hansi Flick, took charge at the start of November to finish the job his predecessor had started. He then led his charges to victory over Chelsea in a last-16 tie decided across six months (though, in truth, a 3-0 win at Stamford Bridge in the first leg had all but settled matters).

To Lisbon, where, given their recent form, the Germans went into their quarter-final clash with Barcelona as slight favourites. They ended it as the clear pick to lift the trophy, dismantling their opponents with a famous 8-2 win that will live long in the memory. It was widely thought that this victory would set up a semi-final against Manchester City and former manager Pep Guardiola, only for Lyon to eliminate the English outfit.

A routine 3-0 win over the Ligue 1 side meant a final against another French team, PSG. This, as it should be, proved to Bayern’s toughest test and was the first time since they met Olympiakos in October that the result was in any doubt. Neymar and Kylian Mbappe had their chances but were thwarted by Manuel Neuer, and Kingsley Coman’s header on the hour mark was enough for the Bavarians to win the game and the title. The winger had been a surprise selection for the final but repaid Flick’s faith with an emphatic finish against his former side.

How they won it

The obvious place to start here is Robert Lewandowski, who netted 15 goals and only failed to find the net in one of his ten appearances (the final). Having come so close to winning the trophy with Dortmund in 2013, only to lose to Bayern at the final hurdle, this felt like a long overdue winners’ medal. Lewandowski did not only prove his prowess as a goalscorer, though, as he finished joint-top of assists charts alongside PSG’s Angel Di Maria with six apiece.

Furthermore, the fact that the Pole’s teammates racked up 28 goals between them suggests there is more to Bayern than just their number nine. Serge Gnabry finished as the third-highest scorer in the competition with nine goals, including four in the 7-2 win against Tottenham. The 25-year-old’s electric pace on the counter in that performance ensured that future opponents were wary of playing a high line, alleviating the pressure on Bayern in defence and midfield. Having started the season on the left of attack, he moved to the right flank following the restart and proved equally effective, as demonstrated with a first-half brace in the semi-final.

However, while playing high up the pitch may have been unwise for opposition defenders, sitting back proved equally fruitless. As shown against Barcelona, Bayern were happy to overload the area with forwards and rely on deliveries from the flanks, often courtesy of full backs Alphonso Davies and Joshua Kimmich.

The former’s dribbling ability and pace allowed him to break down packed defences, with his assist for the latter against Barcelona a prime example. Here he wriggled past Nelsen Semedo and Arturo Vidal on the touchline before cutting the ball back for the onrushing Kimmich.

Kimmich offered a different threat to his Canadian teammate. His equaliser from from 25 yards against Tottenham served as a warning to opponents to close him down, therefore providing his teammates with more space to themselves. To leave him alone later proved dangerous, as PSG learned to their cost as he crossed for Coman’s winner in the final.

Where they stand

In brief, nothing has changed. Bayern’s 2020/21 Bundesliga season began with a 8-0 hammering of Schalke before victories over Sevilla and Dortmund in the UEFA and German Super Cups respectively. A shock 4-1 defeat at Hoffenheim means that they do not occupy top spot in their domestic league; however, surges up the table in the second half of the season have been a recurring theme in recent campaigns.

Their only major arrival has been in attack. Loanee Ivan Perišić has returned to parent club Inter Milan and been replaced by German winger Leroy Sané. He and Gnabry have taken the number ten and seven shirts respectively, a nod to club legends Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery with the suggestion that the current occupants are the successors to the “Robbery” partnership.

The game against Schalke saw Sané line up on the right wing against his former club. His contribution in 72 minutes on his debut: a goal and two assists for Gnabry, despite just 33 touches of the ball. Gnabry made his mark with a hat-trick and, although nominally a left winger, his touch map (Fig. 1) provides a clearer picture of his positioning.

Fig. 1: Gnabry (playing left to right) was named as a left-sided forward in Bayern's win over Schalke, but had the ball on both flanks. Stats via WhoScored.

Like his new teammate, Sané has experience of playing on both wings during his time at Manchester City. He is predominantly left-footed, in contrast to Gnabry (who admittedly shows little restraint in using his “weaker foot”, as demonstrated against Lyon). With both players, as well as Kingsley Coman, happy to play on either flank, Flick has plenty of options to support Lewandowski.

Let’s move on to him. The 32-year-old has already found net seven times in three league appearances, including all of his side’s goals in a 4-3 win over Hertha Berlin. Meanwhile, Thomas Müller registered his second and third goals of the campaign at Arminia Bielefeld on Saturday. His role in the Bayern juggernaut is harder to define, although I have suggested in a recent article that he fulfils the basic requirements of a number ten.

Further back, the departure of Thiago Alcantara to Liverpool has meant that Kimmich has moved into midfield. He has two assists so far, while his pass success rate stands at 90.9% at time of writing; no outfield player has managed more successful long passes in the Bundesliga (32). He also handed opponents a reminder of his shooting ability with a long-range strike at Hoffenheim.

Flick can also call upon the service of World Cup winners Lucas Hernández and Benjamin Pavard in defence. The latter has taken the right back spot in Kimmich’s stead, while his international teammate started on the opposite flank against Hertha, with Davies fielded further forward. Another MLS import, 20-year-old Chris Richards, assisted Lewandowski’s second goal in that match.

Where are their weaknesses?

Considering their aforementioned strength across the pitch, the obvious weakness to highlight would be in central defence. David Alaba has been converted to a centre back, where he plays alongside Jérôme Boateng or Niklas Süle on occasion. The latter duo’s lack of pace can be exploited when playing higher up the pitch; Boateng is now 32, while Sule’s physical strength comes at a cost with regard to his speed. Barcelona did this in last season’s quarter-final but not with the frequency or efficiency to punish them.

The defenders’ positioning, though, has been more of a concern. In particular, Boateng has too often been dragged away from his post and gaps have appeared as a result. This was the case for Hoffenheim’s third goal in September (Fig. 2). He also strayed from Luis Suárez in their victory over Barcelona, allowing the Uruguayan time and space to feint past the German and net a consolation goal (Fig. 3), although this had no effect on the final result.

Fig. 2: Boateng (circled, in red) loses the aerial duel with Moanes Dabbur (circled, in blue) and then tracks the Hoffenheim forward to prevent Alaba from being isolated in a two-v-one. As a result, he is not in position to intercept the cross to Andrej Kramarić (top, blue shirt), who has time to control the ball and score. Image: BT Sport via Youtube.

Fig. 3: As the ball was played to Jordi Alba (far left), Boateng (circled, in white) was actually marking Suárez (circled, in blue and white). Anticipating a cross into the centre, he runs back to his area, only for Alba to instead find Suárez. Image: BT Sport via Youtube.

The forwards’ lack of desire to track back and support the defence could also be an issue. Gnabry has attempted 15 tackles this season, an impressive tally that is higher than any of his teammates’, winning 11 (also highest). However, only two of those attempts to win the ball have been in his own half. As shown in Fig. 1 above, just nine of his 57 touches against Schalke were in his own half. Against Hoffenheim it was nine of 69, Hertha 11 of 74 and Bielefeld just two of 54.

Similarly, only 17 of Sané’s 80 touches in the Bundesliga have been in Bayern territory. Granted, Bayern would expect to be on the front foot in each of these games, but problems may arise if they continue with this approach in the later rounds of the Champions League, particularly as their full backs’ forays forward will leave the side further exposed.

How challengers fare

Will this give the other Champions League contenders hope? It’s unlikely.

Their predecessors on the throne, Liverpool, have already dropped more points in their opening five Premier League games than they did in the first 27 of last season. Nonetheless, they will expect to finish top of their group. Despite their upcoming meetings with Atalanta and Ajax promising goals, neither outfit is as strong as in recent years. As in the last two seasons, should they have mend their defensive problems they will emerge as challengers but that will depend on the fitness of Alisson and Virgil Van Dijk. It is worth noting that the Reds have lost eight of last 12 away games in the Champions League regardless of the duo’s presence.

Meanwhile, Manchester City’s detractors will point to their record in the competition. They are yet to reach the semi-finals under Guardiola since he joined from Bayern in 2016 and, despite three successive semi-final appearances with the Bavarians, the Spaniard has not been to the final since 2011. Like Liverpool, City do not appear as strong as in recent years. They have scored just seven goals in their first four league games, compared with 14 last season, 11 in 2018/19 and ten in 2017/18. Given the departure of key players in the last 18 months and new defensive recruits, there is a strange sense that this is a team in transition.

The same can be said for Spain’s three biggest clubs. Real Madrid have an exciting crop of young players, but their exit to Manchester City in last season’s Champions League suggests they have a long way to go before they can realistically consider a 14th title. Barcelona’s defeat to Bayern exposed their slowly growing cracks for all to see. Miralem Pjanić and Sergiño Dest were not the major arrivals fans wanted, while Saturday’s defeat to Getafe has done little to endear Ronald Koeman to them.

Bayern will face Atletico in the group stage, with Los Rojiblancos by far their strongest challengers for top spot. Interestingly, they have not got the better of Diego Simeone’s side in either of their two previous ties. The Bavarians were eliminated on away goals in the 2015/16 semi-finals, before finishing as runners up in the group stage in the following season. The Spanish side’s star signing this summer has been the aforementioned Suárez, who was unceremoniously let go by Barcelona. One can be sure that he will have a point to prove, and the gamesmanship between himself and strike partner Diego Costa will be a test for Bayern. In contrast, the loss of Thomas Partey in midfield has been a blow.

Can Andrea Pirlo follow Zidane’s footsteps and lift the trophy in his first season as a manager? As long as Juventus have Cristiano Ronaldo, the perennial Serie A champions will be in the conversation. However, they are yet to even make the semi-finals since the five-time winner’s arrival. Eliminations at the hands of underdogs Ajax and Lyon in recent years suggest they will struggle this time.

Back in Germany where Dortmund, while free-scoring, are yet to demonstrate any ability to win against top sides. Even prior to their Super Cup defeat last month, Bayern’s most likely challengers in the Bundesliga could not beat them in last season’s league campaign. They have not qualified for the Champions League quarter-finals since 2017, following defeats in the last-16 round by Tottenham and PSG in the past two seasons.

And what of PSG? Often disregarded as a wealthy fish in a small pond, their participation in the 2019/20 final has gone some way to shaking that tag loose. Many would argue that the path was easier than in most year – Dortmund, Atalanta and RB Leipzig are not Europe’s most fearsome opponents – but they topped a group containing Real Madrid and showed mental fortitude in their late comeback in the quarter-finals. How they cope without Thiago Silva and Edinson Cavani will go some way to deciding their fate in the tournament’s latter stages.

The good news for Bayern is that Europe’s other top sides seem to be in a weaker position than 12 months ago, or at least no stronger. None of them will be happy to face the Bavarians, whose players have the confidence and experience to retain their title.

Stats via WhoScored.