Kane joins summer’s most sought-after strikers as clubs clamour for goals

Rúben Dias has been named the Premier League Player of the Season. In 27 years to date, it is only the fifth occasion in which a defender has claimed the award, and means that Harry Kane’s efforts have gone unrecognised despite him topping both the goals and assists charts. Ultimately, though, Saturday’s announcement was not such a surprise.

Why? Unlike Dias, Kane completed yet another season without club honours. Tottenham Hotspur have not lifted silverware since Kane turned 13; he turns 28 this July, having seen his side finish outside the top four for a second consecutive season. Leaving one’s boyhood club cannot be easy but there is a growing sense that if he does not depart north London now for one of Europe’s elite sides, he never will.

The problem facing the England captain is that he is not the only centre forward on the market. Erling Haaland’s emergence has done little to help Kane’s status in world football. Seven years his junior, the Norwegian’s ruthlessness in front of goal at Dortmund has only enhanced his own reputation, which has seen him turn from prodigy to world-class marksman since he arrived in Germany 18 months ago. A brace in the DFB Pokal final ensured that, unlike Kane, he did not end season empty-handed, but any hopes of winning a league or European title are unlikely to be realised on the Rühr.

Meanwhile in neighbouring France, Kylian Mbappé enters the final year of contract at PSG. A World Cup winner in 2018 aged just 19, this was the first season of his senior career in which he failed to win Ligue 1, even though he finished as the division’s top scorer for a third year in succession. Having seen PSG fall short once again in the Champions League, he is yet to commit to a new deal. Could it be time for him to leave his homeland for a new challenge?

So there we have it. Three strikers who belong in title-winning teams, all at a crossroads in their respective careers. Each seeking glory in the world’s biggest competitions - but where can they find it?

Why would Kane and co. be in such high demand?

Fortunately for all three players, there are several clubs chasing the signature of a striker this summer. With the exception of Robert Lewandowski (who, having been denied a Ballon d’Or for his exploits in 2020, followed last year’s treble-winning campaign by scoring a record 41 goals in the Bundesliga), very few centre forwards beyond the aforementioned trio have caught the eye.

Indeed, a quick glance at the goal tallies from Europe’s leading scorers indicates a general decline across the map (Fig. 1). Although Mbappé and Lionel Messi improved on their numbers from 2019/20, neither were able to reach the figures managed in their respective leagues prior to that. Similarly, although Kane finished the Premier League campaign with 23 goals, it was the third successive season in which the Golden Boot winner found the net fewer than 25 times; this had only happened in three of the previous 16 previous seasons.

Fig. 1: Number of goals by top scorers in Europe’s top five leagues in each of the last five seasons.

It was no different on the European stage. Haaland topped the Champions League charts with ten goals, the joint-lowest tally to earn such an accolade since 2009/10. Dortmund exited in the quarter-finals, when he did not find the net in either leg. Chelsea, of course, eventually lifted the trophy despite having netted just nine times in the knockout stage (Fig. 2). Their leading scorer, Olivier Giroud, did not get on the scoresheet beyond the round of last 16. In fact, he featured for fewer than 30 minutes across his side’s final five games. Of course, this takes nothing away from the Blues’ triumph, which Thomas Tuchel built on a solid defence that was unrecognisable from the one coached by Frank Lampard just four months earlier.

Fig. 2: Average number of goals per game during the knockout stage by the Champions League winners in each of the last ten seasons. Chelsea’s average of 1.29 in 2020/21 is the joint-lowest.

Likewise, Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea all managed fewer Premier League goals than in 2019/20 or 2018/19. Real Madrid and Barcelona’s league tallies were also down on the previous season’s, while PSG’s was their lowest since 2017 (when accounting for the 2019/20 campaign ending after 27 matches).

With this in mind, it seems that guaranteed goal scorers are at a premium. Although Kane, Haaland and Mbappé have finished first in the scoring charts in at least one of 2020/21’s major competitions, none of them were able to get their hands on the main prize. The equation, on paper, is simple; find a team that can match their quality.

Only a few clubs match this ambition and, unfortunately, even fewer can afford to sign any of the trio. Kane still has three years to run on his contract at Tottenham, where chairman Daniel Levy famously drives a hard bargain. Dortmund, who have sold Ousmane Dembélé, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Christian Pulisic for large fees in the last four years, will not let their prized asset go for a steal. Although Mbappé could look to leave for a lower fee due to his contract situation, not many could afford his reported £350,000-a-week salary, especially when PSG have the funds to match any competitor’s offer.

Should Mbappé wave goodbye to the Parc de Princes, PSG might be inclined to move for either of his two peers. Even were he to stay, there is space in the forward line to accommodate himself, Neymar and another centre forward. Perhaps the acquisition of such a striker might even tempt him to extend his own stay.

Barcelona’s business so far this summer has been with players out of contract, and they would need to make significant sales to raise the money required for any of the trio. They have already signed Sergio Agüero, too. That leaves Real Madrid as the destination of choice in Spain.

In Germany, Bayern have rarely forked out large sums for players; to date, Lucas Hernández is their only arrival to cost over £41m. Besides, replacing Lewandowski is out of the question. In Italy, Romelu Lukaku has committed to staying at Serie A champions Inter, while Juventus’ ability to challenge in Europe is under scrutiny after exits to Ajax, Lyon and Porto in the last three Champions League campaigns respectively.

That, of course, leaves the Premier League. As mentioned above, England’s biggest sides were found wanting in front of goal in comparison to previous seasons, while Manchester United may wish to make a marquee signing.

Let’s look at each of the potential suitors and see how each player might fit into their plans for 2022.

Real Madrid

Having finished the season trophyless and seen manager Zinedine Zidane depart, the writing was on the wall for Real Madrid when none of their players were selected for Spain’s squad at Euro 2020. They are the only club to have been consistently linked with all three strikers listed; they will always be associated with world-class talent, and one suspects that any player would jump at the chance to wear the famous white shirt. But to whom should Los Blancos turn?

A move for Haaland or Kane, both of whom must start as out-and-out centre forwards, would surely see veteran Karim Benzema either step aside or depart the Bernabeu. Although he is now 33, the Frenchman has enjoyed a new lease of scoring form since Cristiano Ronaldo’s exit in 2018. He has amassed totals of 30, 27 and 30 goals in the last three seasons respectively, and his efforts in 2020/21 have seen resulted in an unlikely recall to the national team.

Only two strikers played more key passes in La Liga last term than Benzema; of those, only Iago Aspas managed more assists (12 to nine). His rate of 1.4 key passes per game is similar to that of Kane and Haaland (1.2 and 1 respectively).

However, a deeper investigation into Benzema’s passing habits reveals more, particularly in comparison to either of his proposed successors (Fig. 3). Benzema played an average of 37.6 passes per league game last season, over double Haaland’s number and significantly higher than Kane’s. Moreover, Kane’s desire to drop deep and sidle to the wings meant that a higher proportion of his attempted passes were played over distance. With Real Madrid’s current set-up, such actions are mostly taken by Toni Kroos and Luka Modric in midfield; Benzema’s success at centre forward has come from playing a higher volume of passes over a shorter distance.

Fig. 3: Passing statistics for Benzema, Haaland and Kane in their respective league campaigns in 2020/21. Stats via WhoScored.

Benzema’s compatriot Mbappé, however, could act as an effective foil on the flank. Mbappé scored more goals in Ligue 1 alone last term than Madrid’s Eden Hazard, Marco Asensio, Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo managed in all competitions combined. Real Madrid would represent a step up from PSG in terms of status, and would probably offer him the most likely opportunity of domestic honours over any suitors in the Premier League.

Chelsea

As mentioned above, Chelsea’s strength in keeping goals out has not been matched by their ability to convert chances. Giroud is now third-highest on Chelsea’s list of all-time of scorers in European competitions but, although he has signed a one-year extension on his contract at Stamford Bridge, he does not have a regular place in the starting XI. Meanwhile, Chelsea’s top scorer in the league last season was Jorginho, whose seven goals all came from the penalty spot.

In fact, no Chelsea player has registered more than 22 goals in a season since Didier Drogba in 2010; this was also the last time player that any player scored over 20 league goals.

For all the attacking talent brought to west London last summer, none have done enough to cement a first-team place. Kai Havertz wrote himself into the club’s history books with a goal in the Champions League final, but the German started just five of his side’s final ten games of the season. Timo Werner started nine, but his best moments in a blue shirt have come as either a left-winger or second striker. A homegrown talent, Tammy Abraham, did not play a single minute during the knockout stages and was barely involved toward the end of the league campaign; he was not even named in the matchday squad for either the FA Cup semi-final or final.

Haaland would provide a combination of Werner’s speed and Giroud’s strength. His pace could be used to stretch defences and provide a constant threat to the opposition, just as Werner did against Manchester City in both the FA Cup semi-final and Champions League final. Meanwhile, his superior hold-up play would allow him to pick out the numerous wingers on the Stamford Bridge payroll (Fig. 4).

Fig. 4: Stats for loss of possession in domestic league and European competition in 2020/21. Stats via WhoScored.

Mbappé’s profile, while certainly an upgrade, is too similar to those already in Tuchel’s roster. Then again, one constant of the Roman Abramovich era has been ruthlessness. Should a deal for Mbappé appear possible, then keeping hold of the players that have underperformed to date might seem less appealing. At this time, though, such a player is not a priority.

Given the club’s rivalry with Tottenham, Levy is unlikely to consider any bid for Kane. Furthermore, it would be a surprise to see the player himself damage his legacy at White Hart Lane by making the move across the capital.

Liverpool

Jürgen Klopp has built arguably the most devastating front three in world football in recent seasons. Mo Salah, Sadio Mané and Roberto Firmino have scored 273 goals in all competitions since they first played together in 2017. However, the 2020/21 season has been a disappointing one for the Reds and Klopp may have to refresh his forward line if his side are to compete for silverware next term. While defensive absentees at Anfield have stolen the headlines, the truth is that the Reds have underwhelmed at the other end of the pitch too.

The obvious candidate for omission is Firmino, who is responsible for 64 of those goals, just over half of Salah’s 125. The Brazilian is often the deepest-lying of the trio and is responsible for feeding his fellow forwards as they find space beyond the opposition’s backline; indeed, he has recorded 47 assists since August 2017, the same number as Salah has managed and 12 more than Mané’s 35. In a formation lacking a de facto number 10, this has proved vital to Liverpool’s recent success.

As such, Kane would represent the most obvious like-for-like replacement. He assisted 14 league goals in 2020/21 and, like the Brazilian, is capable of operating as a false nine and providing passes to wide forwards. His tally of 23 league goals is greater than Firmino has managed in all competitions in the last two seasons combined. One can only hypothesise how occupying a deeper role on a more regular basis would affect Kane’s numbers, particularly if he were to devolve penalty duties to Salah. Nonetheless, his ability to finish would surely see him score more than the incumbent number nine.

Another trait of Firmino’s which is commonly cited is his desire to press and win the ball high up the pitch. He attempted 58 tackles in last season’s league campaign, more than any other centre forward. However, Kane ranked third on the list with 40 efforts, while his success rate of 55% is identical to the Brazilian’s. No striker recorded more interceptions than either player, with their tally of 11 only matched by Gabriel Jesus.

Haaland, meanwhile, registered just six assists but did play an impressive 27 key passes in Germany. However, with just ten attempted tackles and four interceptions, he has not shown the same skill in regaining possession.

Alternatively, the acquisition of Diogo Jota last summer suggests that Klopp might look at a new way to play that could accommodate Mbappé. Jota is the first notable striker to arrive at Anfield since Salah and, either side of a spell on the sidelines, the Portuguese has been success.

He has been at his most effective coming in from the left flank, a position in which he excelled at Wolves prior to his switch. He scored twice as a substitute against Arsenal in April when arriving at the far post to convert crosses from the right wing, a performance which earned him a place in the starting XI three nights later at Real Madrid. As shown in Figures 5 and 6, just as at the Emirates he was poised to make runs at the far post from Trent Alexander-Arnold’s crosses, while Mané and Salah switched positions between the centre and right flank.

Fig. 5: Jota (left, red shirt) is ready to sprint to the far post, while Salah occupies the centre forward role. Image from BT Sport.

Fig. 6: Jota runs from left flank inside, with Andy Robertson offering support on his left. Image from BT Sport.

Should Klopp wish to replicate this system on a permanent basis, Mbappé would be the obvious solution. The prospect of him oscillating with Salah and Mané is a mouth-watering one, and would make their movements far less predictable and much harder to track. The Frenchman could also seamlessly occupy either wide position should either of his teammates suffer an injury.

Manchester City

"With these prices it’s impossible - we cannot afford it. That’s not going to happen.”

So said Pep Guardiola in early April when asked about a bid for a centre forward this summer.

Subsequent performances supported such a stance, too, as City won the Premier League and EFL Cup and reached the Champions League final without resorting to such archaic ideas as playing with a centre forward.

Having one helps, though, especially when Guardiola’s side looked so toothless in Porto. Agüero, the club’s all-time top scorer, has left after a decade in Manchester, while Jesus has not done enough in the biggest games to warrant the Spaniard’s trust on a regular basis.

As discussed, Kane can be the false nine that City’s manager has found fashionable of late. He could also operate as a more orthodox centre forward, too; while at Tottenham his all-action displays have come from a bid to retain possession and create chances in transitions, there is plenty of talent at the Etihad to make those moves on his behalf. Having someone on hand to convert the chances is of far greater importance. If Kane elects to remain in the Premier League and chase Alan Shearer’s record of 260 goals, he could do worse than to follow his former team mate Kyle Walker north.

Otherwise, City could move for Haaland, the son of former player Alf-Inge. Having Haaland’s height advantage could add an extra dimension to their play. However, despite his stature (6’4”), the Norwegian does not score many headers. Only two of his 57 goals at Dortmund have come via his head, as did two from 29 at Salzburg. Although Guardiola’s side create plenty of opportunities via crosses, to date his only centre forwards have been Agüero (5’8”) and Jesus (5’9”), while Kelechi Iheanacho (6'1") left after one season under the Spaniard. It goes without saying that the former duo have relied on movement to score from such chances, rather than physical prowess.

Haaland’s own runs around the penalty area would suit a City side accustomed to facing low blocks, as he prefers to sprint onto passes slipped behind the defence. Only one of his 37 goals in the Bundesliga and Champions League last season came from outside the area - his opener against Bayern in March’s Klassiker. His second goal that evening would be more typical of the opportunities he would receive at City, as he dashed across the area to the near post to convert Thorgan Hazard’s cutback (Fig. 7-9).

Fig. 7: Haaland (top, yellow shirt) has opened his body to receive the ball from Nico Schulz. Were the German naturally right-footed, this would be the obvious pass. Image: Bundesliga via Youtube.

Fig. 8: Instead, Schulz slides the ball along the flank to Hazard. Haaland could continue his run toward goal between the two Bayern centre backs, but elects to move toward the near post. Image: Bundesliga via Youtube.

Fig. 9: Hazard only has to flick the ball inside, where Haaland (centre) is now on hand to score into an empty net. Image: Bundesliga via Youtube.

In contrast, Mbappé runs from a wider position. Each of his first two goals at the Nou Camp in February saw his make a run toward the penalty spot and anticipate where the ball would fall. This is slightly different to Haaland’s goal above, while City’s play is mostly built upon pre-planned and rehearsed movements. There is no doubt that the Frenchman’s instincts and quick reactions put him into the bracket of elite striker; whether they match Guardiola’s preference for predictability is another matter.

Manchester United

Manchester United’s first order of business this summer is to add balance to their attack. According to WhoScored, 42% of their attacks during the 2020/21 league campaign came down the left-hand side; only Aston Villa and Crystal Palace saw a high proportion. In contrast, just 33% came on the right flank, the second joint-lowest in the division. In the Champions League, those numbers were 45% on the left (a competition high) and 27% on the right (lowest).

As a result, reports that they have reignited their interest in Haaland’s team mate Jadon Sancho are hardly surprising. Such a switch would likely set the club back by at least £80m, so an additional investment in attack would have to be the right one. Edinson Cavani’s form in the second half of last season earned him an extended stay at Old Trafford. Nonetheless, he is not a long-term solution.

Much will depend on where Ole Gunnar Solskjaer sees Mason Greenwood’s future. To date the teenager has largely operated on the right of a front three, but his ability to finish with aplomb using either foot might make his manager reconsider. Should Sancho sign, Greenwood would be the likely casualty.

Of course, strength in depth has become more important than ever in the modern game. When the Red Devils played two games in 48 hours last month against Leicester and Liverpool, their forward line for the former match consisted of Greenwood, Amad Diallo and Anthony Elanga; all three are teenagers. Manchester City and Chelsea both demonstrated the benefits of having a deeper squad on their run to the latter stages of the Champions League and FA Cup. If United are to keep up, they need to follow suit.

Having a variety of profiles is important, too. Mbappé’s ability to carry the ball forward at speed is similar to that of Sancho and Marcus Rashford. In contrast, Cavani is the only forward at Solskjaer’s disposal who stands at six feet.

Kane and Haaland would both offer greater physical prowess. The former’s aerial threat would be an attractive target to the United wingers, as well as Paul Pogba and Bruno Fernandes; as suggested above, Haaland’s hold-up play would allow him to feed those around him. United’s greatest strength is the speed of their transitions, a style that would suit either striker, albeit in different ways. Again, if Kane wants to become the Premier League’s all-time leading scorer, this would be a sensible move.

Plenty of options

In all likelihood, Haaland and Kane’s next step depends on what the other does first. Although they do not share many attributes, their profiles fit those that Europe’s top teams are seeking.

As for Mbappé, a move to England seems unlikely unless Liverpool make a rare move for a player who is already deemed world-class. Real Madrid are calling, while there is still a chance that he continues his career in Paris. He is only 22, after all.