Lukaku returns to Chelsea with a point to prove

Chelsea’s participation in the UEFA Super Cup on Wednesday offered an opportunity to recall their involvement in the same fixture in 2013. Jose Mourinho’s men had held Pep Guardiola’s Bayern Munich to a respectable draw in 90 minutes and even went ahead in extra time despite having been reduced to ten men, but a late equaliser from Javi Martínez meant penalties. The first nine players all scored.

And then up stepped Romelu Lukaku.

The 20-year-old had spent the previous season on loan at West Bromwich Albion and had entered the fray for just his 15th competitive appearance in a Blues shirt. He had not played a single minute in the glorious Europa League campaign in 2012/13, nor that in the Champions League a year prior. His attempt was weak, and Manuel Neuer guessed the right way. Just as they had a year earlier after defeat to Atletico, the Londoners were heading home empty-handed.

Lukaku had arrived at Stamford Bridge in 2011, when his physicality drew inevitable comparisons with that of Didier Drogba. Tall, strong and quick, here was a player who had scored 41 times across 98 appearances for Anderlecht at the age of 18, including 15 goals in a title-winning campaign. Drogba was 33 and into the final year of his contract. Lukaku was the future.

Mourinho didn’t fancy him, though. Perhaps he had already made his mind up before the penalty in Prague, or maybe not. Either way, just three days later Lukaku was loaned to Everton, whom he joined permanently a year later. That miss was to be his final kick for Chelsea.

Until now.

Ten years after he first signed for the club, Lukaku is back in west London. Having seen a return mooted in 2017 before he joined Manchester United, he now arrives from Inter Milan for a reported £97.5m fee, having fired the Nerazzurri to their first title since 2009/10 which, by coincidence, was the last time he laid his own hands on silverware. It seems ridiculous to say of a player with 64 goals for Belgium (a record, and 32 more than second-placed Eden Hazard has managed) and 251 at some of Europe’s biggest clubs, but it seems Lukaku can finally be considered world-class.

Why have Chelsea signed Lukaku?

As discussed in my previous article, Chelsea have found a prolific centre forward hard to come by over the last decade. None of their players have reached the 20-goal mark in a league campaign since Drogba did so in the 2009/10 season, despite the significant outlay on attacking talent last summer, the current crop have not come close to matching those heights. Jorginho topped the Blues’ scoring charts in the Premier League last term with seven penalties.

The bad news for Chelsea fans is that Erling Haaland, who seemed a natural fit, won’t be arriving at Stamford Bridge any time soon. Having allowed Jadon Sancho to depart for Manchester United already this summer, the Dortmund hierarchy are no longer in a position whereby they need to sell and are understandably less inclined to let another starlet leave. The fact that so few clubs can meet either the club’s or the 21-year old’s own financial demands means that the Norwegian’s move may be delayed to 2022, when rumours indicate a £64m buyout clause will become active.

The good news from a Chelsea perspective is that Inter do not have such a luxury. Times are tough for the Serie A champions, and Achraf Hakimi’s move to PSG within a year of his arrival sent a clear message: they need funds. Antonio Conte’s exit as head coach just days after the Nerazzurri lifted the Scudetto did nothing to aid the instability and, while Chelsea reportedly missed out on the Moroccan’s signature, they returned to Milan when they felt another target could be acquired.

Lukaku scored 24 times and assisted a further ten as Inter ended their 11-year wait for the Serie A title last term. His goals accounted for 27% of the champions’ final tally of 89; only Cristiano Ronaldo netted a higher percentage for a team in the Italian top flight. The ten assists meant that, in total, he had a direct hand in 34 goals – 38.2% of Inter’s overall figure.

Compare these numbers to those recorded by Chelsea’s strikers and the difference is vast. Thomas Tuchel’s side finished fourth in the Premier League, but the four players to have played up front managed just 20 goals and 12 assists between them in a combined 5,904 minutes of Premier League action (Fig.1).

Fig. 1: Lukaku’s rate of goal contributions per 90 minutes in the 2020/21 Serie A campaign is comparable to that of any two of Chelsea’s strikers combined during the Premier League season. Stats via Transfermarkt and the Premier League.

In fact, the Belgian surpassed 20 goals in both of his seasons in the Serie A. While he did not achieve this in either of his campaigns at Manchester United, he finished second in the Premier League scoring charts in his final season at Everton, netting 25 times.

A glance at his scoring record across the last five seasons tells us, besides his two-year stint at Old Trafford, his scoring rate is on the rise (Fig. 2). Even then, it was only in his second year that he averaged fewer than 0.5 goals per 90 minutes (a season fraught with difficulties as Jose Mourinho was dismissed in December). Make no mistake, Lukaku may not have been ready to be the main man when he first joined Chelsea, but he has proven that he can take the burden on his broad shoulders since – both in England and abroad.

Fig. 2: Lukaku has improved on his impressive scoring rate at Everton in 2016/17 during his spell in Italy. Stats via Transfermarkt.

How would Lukaku play at Chelsea?

Conte almost exclusively deployed a 3-4-1-2 formation during Lukaku’s time at Inter. The Italian’s signature system reaped great rewards during his own spell at Stamford Bridge, and here allowed the Belgian to form a fruitful striker partnership with Lautauro Martínez. Tuchel implemented a similar setup upon his arrival in London (or a 3-4-2-1 variation)..

The Nerazzurri averaged just 52% possession during the league last season (almost identical to the 52.8% in 2019/20), with their total of nine goals from counter-attacking situations a division high. The champions nonetheless spent 29% of their match time inside the final third, a figure bettered only by Atalanta and Napoli.

While the stats show that Conte’s desire for possession of the ball changed little as he moulded his team in Milan, the way they attacked did. In 2019/20 the points of attack across the pitch were largely balanced; however, in 2020/21 there was a greater preference to attacking down the right flank, possibly due to the arrival of Hakimi at wing back, but it favoured Lukaku regardless as he gravitated toward this side of the pitch.

Chelsea, meanwhile, boast a far higher average of 62.8% across Tuchel’s 19 Premier League games to date. This itself is a significant increase on the 54.4% under Frank Lampard in the first half of last season. As is to be expected, more possession generally results in fewer opportunities to spring a counter attack; this approach produced just two goals for the Blues.

However, their 1-0 victory over Liverpool in March demonstrated a willingness to go direct against a high press. This was only one of two league games under Tuchel in which Chelsea enjoyed less possession than the opposition. Despite this, they played ten key passes to the hosts’ seven, repeatedly looking to play long balls over the top for their forwards to chase. Having seen a Timo Werner strike from such a scenario disallowed by the VAR, the same move put Mason Mount through to score the game’s only goal.

Mount turned provider in the Champions League final as his pass to Kai Havertz from inside his own half bisected the Manchester City. Similarly, it is not hard to picture Lukaku converting from such an assist as the one Werner supplied to his compatriot in a friendly against Arsenal earlier this month.

Lukaku managed 13 goals and four assists in European competitions during his time at Inter. As opposed to using his fabled strength or aerial prowess to shrug off defenders, his goals largely materialised from well-timed runs, either off the shoulder of the last man or arriving into the area. His assists, meanwhile, have been crosses or passes from the right channel. Figure 3 details the positions from which he scored and assisted for Nerazzurri in the Champions League and Europa League.

Fig. 3: Diagram marking the positions from which Lukaku scored (orange) or assisted (red) in European competitions for Inter across two seasons.

Of course, this does not mean that he will not be deployed as a more orthodox target man at Chelsea but, rather, reaffirms his current status as a world-class all-round centre forward.

Who will play alongside Lukaku at Chelsea?

Olivier Giroud has already left Chelsea, heading to Milan himself to join Inter’s neighbours, while Lukaku’s arrival has signalled that Tammy Abraham’s 17-year stay at Stamford Bridge is at an end. Another academy product, Albania international Armando Broja, has joined Southampton on loan for the 2021/22 campaign. Michy Batshuayi is somehow still at the club but unlikely to feature.

As such, Havertz and Werner will likely deputise for the Belgian, but there could be room for either to play alongside him regularly. As outlined above, Lukaku’s preference at Inter was to drive from the right-hand channel; given Werner’s desire to come in from the left, he could prove a perfect foil. Both he and Lukaku have the ability to carry the ball forward in tight spaces and the pace to work well on the counter. In Werner, Tuchel may have the new Martínez that brings out the best in the Belgian, while a striker partner could ignite the German’s own career in England.

Mount’s flexibility in playing behind two forwards, or either side of a lone striker, boosts his own chances of involvement. Likewise, Christian Pulisic is comfortable operating on either wing and, with a preference for starting on the left, should find plenty of opportunities. Although Callum Hudson-Odoi can too play on both flanks, his appearances under Tuchel have largely been at wing back; the acquisition of Lukaku will only cement this.

Lukaku’s propensity to drift from the right may spell trouble for Hakim Ziyech, however. The Moroccan made just 15 league starts last term and, though he has featured regularly in pre-season, Tuchel may find it difficult to accommodate him alongside Lukaku in a front three. The fact that he will miss part of the season while on international duty at AFCON in January won’t help matters either. Should Lukaku occupy a more central area, though, the former Ajax winger will find it easy to find him with his trademark crosses from deep.

Upon his return, Lukaku commented:

"I’m happy and blessed to be back at this wonderful club. It’s been a long journey for me: I came here as a kid who had a lot to learn, now I’m coming back with a lot of experience and more mature."

Despite his achievements at Salzburg and Dortmund, Haaland was earmarked as a signing for the Blues’ future, with up to a decade ahead of him at the top level. Nobody knows better than Lukaku what is like to have arrive in west London as such a prodigy. A decade on he is back, but this time he has to the be the man for the right now.