Old accusations resurface as Dortmund fall behind in Bundesliga title race

Ten games into the 2020/21 campaign and the Bundesliga has already assumed a familiar shape. Three of last season’s top four are in the Champions League spots and, were the season to end today, few eyebrows would be raised at the standings. However, it would once again represent a missed opportunity for Dortmund.

Let’s be fair. Lucien Favre’s side currently occupy fourth position in the table and are only four points from the summit. Twenty-four games remain for every side. This is by no means a disaster. Nonetheless, there are warning signs that Bayern’s greatest challengers over the last decade cannot take advantage of their rivals’ increasingly infrequent slip-ups.

Last Saturday the reigning champions hosted Red Bull RasenBallsport Leipzig. The visitors were second and had only tasted defeat in one of their previous five league meetings with Hansi Flick’s side. This was an obvious opportunity for Dortmund to make up ground as they travelled to Frankfurt earlier in the day. Instead, they could only manage a 1-1 draw, before their fellow contenders played out a 3-3 thriller in Munich.

In isolation, this is not a terrible result. It was, remarkably, Dortmund’s first draw in the league in 2020. It was also their fourth consecutive draw away to Frankfurt; in fact, they have not left the Waldstadion with three points since 2013. It is often a tricky fixture. This felt like a good opportunity to end that run, though. The hosts had been without a win in any of their six previous outings, albeit securing five draws in that time.

The issue is, of course, that this was not an isolated incident. When Bayern suffered a shock 4-1 hammering at Hoffenheim earlier this season, Dortmund had already lost 2-0 at Augsburg the day before. Bayern have only dropped points on one other occasion in 2020 – another draw with Leipzig back in February. Dortmund took zero points that weekend, having twice lost the lead in a 4-3 defeat at Leverkusen.

How can Dortmund expect to overtake the champions when they cannot capitalise on their mistakes?

Problems for Dortmund

It would be easy to pin Dortmund’s problems on a lack of control and composure. This is a side associated with free-wheeling attacking play and high-energy chaos, after all. It might be unfair though. Let’s look at their record, particularly in 2020. So far this year Favre’s men have only failed to win on two occasions in which they have taken the lead – the aforementioned 4-3 defeat to Leverkusen, and this season’s meeting with Bayern when Marco Reus’ opener was cancelled out almost immediately by David Alaba.

In the Champions League, meanwhile, they could not hold onto a 2-1 lead against PSG as they bowed out in the round of 16. However, it is worth remembering that Manchester United are the only visiting side to take anything from a European trip to the Parc de Princes since October 2018.

In that case, we come to the inconsistency. Having started season with five wins in six games (all of which came with a clean sheet), they have recorded just one victory in four games since, conceding eight goals in the process. Why?

The defence is not as culpable as we may suspect

Another cliché: Dortmund can score plenty, but can’t defend. No matter how hard they work to shake off tag, these same residual shortcomings resurface.

However, this doesn’t paint a full picture. They have conceded just ten league goals this season; only Leipzig and Leverkusen have fewer against them (nine apiece). By comparison, Bayern have shifted 16 goals this term. Furthermore, Dortmund have faced an average of 7.5 shots per game this season, the lowest tally in the division. It is interesting to note, though, that in terms of shots allowed, 12% have been inside the six-yard box (a division high) but 48% have come from inside the remainder of the penalty area (second-lowest).

Of those 75 shots, 14 came in their defeat to Bayern. Without that outlier, they have had to deal with just 61 shots in nine matches. Only seven of those have found the net.

Since that loss in Der Klassiker, though, they have played three games and conceded five. What’s changed? Has yet another poor result led to a loss of form and confidence?

Back four or back three?

Having operated largely with three centre backs last season, Favre has flitted between a similar set-up and a more traditional back four this term. For the opening five fixtures, of which his side won four, the Swiss opted for three central defenders as expected. Łukasz Piszczek was then dropped for the 3-0 win over Schalke. During the Ruhr derby Dortmund faced just three efforts at goal, the fewest they have had to contend with in a single Bundesliga game this season.

The back four also saw victory over Bielefeld and Favre stuck to the formation for Der Klassiker. While the game ended in defeat, Dortmund did manage more efforts at goal than the visitors (15 to 14) and had marginally more of the possession (51%). In truth, we do not know whether a return to the familiar wing-back system would have yielded a better result; Dortmund led in terms of almost every key stat except the one that matters most. Bayern remain Europe’s strongest side and, while the result was no better, this performance was certainly far more encouraging than their recent displays against the champions.

Similarly, one might look at last month’s shock defeat at Köln and again come to the conclusion that the back four doesn’t work. Having seen his side go two goals down at the hour mark with the same formation, Favre introduced Thorgan Hazard for Thomas Meunier, with Emre Can dropping back to become the third defender. After five shots in the opening 60 minutes, their opponents were limited to just one more effort in the final half an hour, which came from outside the box.

The obvious assumption here is that Dortmund should line-up in the 3-4-3 formation. What these stats don’t account for, however, is that the visitors were always likely to sit back once they were two goals to the good. In turn, Dortmund were likely to ramp up the pressure and pin their opposition back, regardless of whether they had three defenders or four. Crucially, it does not detail the nature of the goals. Each of Ellyes Skhiri’s efforts came as a result of slack marking at a set-piece, allowing him to twice convert from inside the six-yard box. Poor defending? Yes. A result of the formation? No.

Keep going

The defensive stats show that Dortmund are more solid than many of their half-interested critics give them credit for. Indeed, they are arguably the most secure side in the country. Their attack, speared by the prodigious Erling Haaland with Jadon Sancho and Marco Reus in tow, cannot be criticised as needing an upgrade. Besides, the options offered by Hazard, Gio Reyna and Julian Brandt are enough to make most managers across Europe envious, not just in Germany.

Next up, they welcome newly-promoted Stuttgart to Westfalenstadion. The visitors have found the net in each of their ten Bundesliga games upon their return to the top flight, but have lost in eight of their last ten meetings with the hosts. Should Dortmund drop points for a third weekend in succession, a minor wobble could well be reclassified as a bigger issue.

And if they result isn’t the one they hoped for? To answer this question with another – so what? One increasingly senses that Dortmund fall into the same patterns as it becomes a vicious cycle: the draws at Frankfurt, the defeats to Bayern. Their major problem seems to be their ability to keep going after one bad result.

Once they do manage to claw back some points on the leaders, these doubts may just subside and we will see a more confident side emerge. For those of us who wish to see a more competitive title chase, we can only hope so. Whether it comes too late or not remains to be seen.