Balogun contract shines light on potential issues surrounding Arsenal's strikers in near future

As the transfer window closed on Monday night the majority of Arsenal fans will have been happy with the club’s work given the final restrictions. Mesut Özil and Sokratis Papastathopolous, neither of whom had been registered for this season’s squad, departed north London and Shkodran Mustafi joined them in having his contract terminated hours before the window shut. Young players who sought game time left on short-term loans, while Martin Ødegaard joined from Real Madrid until the summer. However, the failure to resolve the future of 19-year-old Folarin Balogun has meant that the situation surrounding Arsenal’s strikers could become a problem come the summer.

Firstly, about Balogun. Prolific at youth level, this season alone he has scored seven times and assisted twice as captain of the Arsenal U23 side, having made 14 goal contributions in 15 games in 2019/20. To date, though, he has been limited to just five senior appearances, all of which have been as a substitute and, despite two goals in the Europa League, has found opportunities hard to come by. He is now into the last six months of his contract and, seemingly unhappy at being overlooked, has stalled on adding his signature to a new one. A tweet posted minutes after the Gunners’ FA Cup exit at Southampton suggested that he feels he has something to offer.

Albeit not an immediate concern, his exit will mean yet another talent lost with no income procured. All three permanent departures in January left with no transfer fee recouped; in reality, Arsenal might have done better to offload Balogun last summer in exchange for a small fee. It also raises questions over who will lead line as soon as next season as Edu and Mikel Arteta must make some decisions over the internal options.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

The club captain has scored more goals than anyone currently at the club. Having been used almost exclusively as lone centre forward upon his arrival three years ago, Unai Emery’s first season in charge saw Aubameyang largely deployed up front alongside Alexandre Lacazette. He ended the campaign having won the Premier League Golden Boot and scored eight goals as the Gunners reached the Europa League final.

However, as discussed in a previous article, the arrival of Nicolas Pépé meant the end of Emery’s preferred 3-4-1-2 formation that accommodated two of Arsenal’s strikers. Aubameyang returned to his role as sole striker until Mikel Arteta’s appointment in late 2019, following which he has played mostly on the left of a front three.

Having been a centre forward by trade upon arrival, and as the club’s top marksman, it stands to reason that the 31-year-old can operate as the spearhead once again. Football, though, is not so straightforward; Liverpool’s main goalscoring threats, Mo Salah and Sadio Mané, are not centre forwards. Neither are Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes or Marcus Rashford. For reference, the Gabonese has netted 32 goals in 45 games on the left (0.71 per game) and just 41 in 72 as a striker (0.57).

His recent brace against Newcastle offers a prime example of the benefits of playing in this system. His pace is an asset to the team on the counter, especially as he can drift left to isolate the full back, as he did for the first of his double. This is not first time he has scored such a goal this season, having converted similar efforts in the Gunners’ opening two games against Liverpool and Fulham. It also warrants him the opportunity to drift into the centre of the area unmarked - see his second goal against the Magpies.

The number nine role is more than just scoring goals, too; it is about occupying the defenders. Though at 6’2” he is by some way Arsenal’s tallest option up front, he does not have the physical presence to match. He is also not particularly effective in pressing the centre backs; across his five appearances this season as a striker, he has attempted just two tackles and made zero interceptions. It is worth noting that not only did Aubameyang fail to score in any of those five outings, but Arsenal won just one, as substitute Lacazette scored within second of his introduction at Brighton.

If he is to play there, he must improve on his attempts to regain possession. The obvious template of a wiry pacey striker in the Premier League is Jamie Vardy, especially as Leicester’s approach has evolved from counter-attacking to a possession-based style. It was the Englishman who denied the Arsenal forward a second successive Golden Boot last term and this time around he has attempted 14 tackles in 18 games, made two interceptions and recorded 13 fouls. In short, he is a nuisance to the opposition.

Alexandre Lacazette

The incumbent of the centre forward position and bearer of number nine shirt, Lacazette is the Gunners’ leading scorer this season. His goals and assists have dragged Arteta’s side back into contention and, while not as prolific as Aubameyang, he makes up for it in other ways.

The Frenchman has recorded 27 assists for the Gunners, 11 more than his captain has managed in a similar timeframe. This tally, however, does not do justice to the way in which he links with other attackers in a way more synonymous with Arsenal’s traditional number nines. This was evidenced by his role in the build-up to Bukayo Saka’s goal at West Brom last month; though not directly responsible for the assist, his crisp pass to Emile Smith Rowe was key.

He also works hard off the ball to win it back. In the Premier League alone he has made 27 attempts at a tackle in 18 appearances (1.5 per game on average) and managed eight interceptions. He has won 31 fouls and made 27; in contrast, Aubameyang has been fouled 12 times and been guilty committing one on nine occasions.

Now for the negatives. Lacazette’s Arsenal career to date has sadly been defined by inconsistency. His spell started brightly as he found the net just two minutes into his competitive debut for the Gunners but soon found the competition for places hard to overcome in his maiden campaign, firstly from fellow Frenchman Olivier Giroud and then new signing Aubameyang, whose cost eclipsed the record fee Arsenal had paid for him just six months earlier.

He was then named the club’s player of the season in 2018/19 as Emery found room for him to play with the Gabonese, despite his teammate winning the Golden Boot. This award was a testament not only to his work ethic but also his record in big games: he scored in both Europa League semi-final legs and in the quarter-final second leg, as well as at home to Spurs, Liverpool and Chelsea. However, in 2019/20 he managed just 12 goals in total, with none coming in the Gunners’ triumphant FA Cup run. The current campaign saw him find the net in each of his first three Premier League games before failing to do so again in any of his following eight matches. In fairness, he is by no means the only Arsenal player to struggle in this period.

Furthermore, and more crucially, by June he will be into the final year of his current contract. He will have turned 30 before then and, given that they handed Aubameyang a lucrative deal last summer, can the club afford to do same with his long-time partner? It would not only be expensive to retain the Frenchman’s services, but there is no guarantee that both men can perform at the desired level toward the end of their careers. Given the financial climate, the board may seek to cash in on the former Lyon man.

Eddie Nketiah

Lacazette’s deputy among the current crop of Arsenal’s strikers, Nketiah’s first impression to the N5 faithful was arguably greater than that made by the Frenchman just weeks earlier. It seemed as though Arsène Wenger had another young gem on his hands as Nketiah was introduced from the bench against Norwich and duly scored an equaliser with his first touch, later adding the winner. In the process, he became the first player to score for the club who had not been alive to witness Wenger arrive at Highbury in 1996. So started the fervour that earmarked him as a potential future number nine.

That could still happen, but to date his career has not yet reached the heights hoped. He had to wait 19 months for his next goal in a senior game before an unsuccessful loan spell at Leeds last season saw him fail to complete 90 minutes in a league game; indeed, on only one occasion did he last longer than 45 minutes. By early January he had been recalled by Arteta and briefly found himself ahead of Lacazette in the pecking order, but the enforced break came at the wrong time. He has largely been utilised in cup competitions since.

He is yet to make an England breakthrough, either, although he has taken the record as all-time top scorer for the U21 side, a reflection of his finishing ability. In terms of his profile, it is easy to regard Nketiah as a poacher; all seven of his shots recorded in the top-flight this term have come from inside the box, as have 20 of his 22 in the Europa League. Granted, a pure finisher is something that Arsenal fans have long cried out for to work with their creative midfield talents, but he has not yet proven his worth against top opposition; his four league goals to date have come against Burnley, Everton, Southampton and West Ham.

In the modern game, any player whose sole worth comes from scoring goals must have an astonishingly high return – Nketiah does not yet boast this. So far he has attempted just two tackles in 320 league minutes this season, and five in 450 minutes in Europe. His goal last season at St. Mary’s, for which he dispossessed Saints goalkeeper Alex McCarthy before putting ball into an empty net, showed an inclination to close down the opposition (of course, not all efforts will result in such a gift).

Another problem; like Lacazette, his contract will expire in the summer of 2022. Matters are further complicated in that he is represented by Elite Project Group Ltd., who count among their roster… Folarin Balogun. His impending departure could be used to leverage a better deal for their other client; alternatively, a lack of game time for the 21-year-old could see him also refuse a new deal. Unless the club see Nketiah as a genuine candidate, they may be tempted to sell up.

Gabriel Martinelli

Could Arteta have another internal solution? Martinelli joined Arsenal in the summer of 2019 and was fielded up front in the EFL Cup and Europa League group phase during Nketiah’s stay at Leeds; in the process, he became the first teenager to score ten goals in a season for the club since Nicolas Anelka did so in 1999.

Following Emery’s exit, the Brazilian has been stationed on the left wing, first by Freddie Ljungberg and then under Arteta as a stand-during Aubameyang’s suspension last winter. However, this role belongs to the skipper for the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, Martinelli’s potential is in no doubt and he has already demonstrated his ability to convert chances. Arsenal fans are waiting to see the best of him since his return from an untimely injury, but he is 19 and has clearly made efforts to add mass to his frame during his recovery period. Better yet, his contract runs until 2024.

External options

There is the real possibility that Arsenal raise funds by selling Lacazette or Nketiah this summer, and to see both leave is far from out of the question. Were even one to depart, a new arrival would be required. However, the biggest names will surely be too expensive or, at any rate, would seek regular Champions League football and title challenges, something Arsenal cannot guarantee. The problem for Arteta is that the prolific players a level below are already approaching 30.

A recurring name in the transfer gossip column is Celtic’s Odsonne Edouard. At 6’2” and with a muscular physique, he fits a different profile to that of current crop; it would be a return to Arsenal’s tradition of aerially dominant strikers such as Giroud, Nicklas Bendtner, Emmanuel Adebayor and even Danny Welbeck. However, he is not a target man; he has been involved in just 32 aerial duels in 1230 minutes in this league campaign, though he has won a commendable 14 of those (43.8%).

Edouard has scored 78 times in 154 for the Scottish champions and the success former Bhoy Kieran Tierney has enjoyed in north London sets a precedent for a player stepping up. Nonetheless, as with Nketiah and Martinelli he remains unproven against the best.

In Spain, Sevilla’s Youssef El-Nesyri has caught the eye in 2020/21. Like Edouard, he is just 23 and has netted 12 goals in La Liga, placing him level with Lionel Messi in the scoring charts and behind only Luis Suárez. He has also scored a further four times in the Champions League, taking his total to 16 goals from 51 shots (a conversion rate of roughly one in three). Forty-seven of those efforts have been taken inside the box. He has also attempted 24 tackles in just shy of 1500 minutes of football, while he has made eight interceptions and competed in 120 aerial duels, winning half. West Ham had a £27m bid rejected last month but it remains to be seen whether this is merely a hot streak; his highest goal tally for a season until now has been 11.

While Erling Haaland may not be within Arteta’s reach, a former teammate of his might be. Patson Daka has 18 goals in 20 games for RB Salzburg this season, following 27 in 45 last term, and has attracted attention across Europe. Again, given the doubts over whether Edouard could step up, it may be a risk to hand first-team responsibilities to a player from Austria’s Bundesliga; though Haaland has proved a success, Takumi Minamino’s 12 months at Liverpool have served as a warning that not all Salzburg stars will hit the ground running.

Arteta and Edu have five months to find a solution. Make no mistake: the current crop offer a blend of experience and potential, and all are certainly talented. They have proven their ability to make difficult decision, particularly when burdened with an abundance of centre backs; can they do it with Arsenal’s strikers?

Stats via WhoScored and Transfermarkt.