David Luiz's new deal would make him the eighth centre back at Arsenal. Who stays and who goes?

Arsenal’s management of player contracts has come under scrutiny in recent months with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s future at the Emirates in doubt. The club captain has just 12 months remaining on his contract but his situation is nothing compared to that of a fellow senior teammate. The recent news that David Luiz only signed a one-year deal last summer seems parodical of the club’s approach. It becomes even more absurd when you learn that his year’s service cost up to £24m in fees and wages.

Even before the details of the deal were revealed, Luiz’s arrival was largely met with bemusement; his adventurous style did not fit the bill that the club sought (or certainly should have) to fix their perennial problems. His performances since have not entirely silenced those critics, and now management must decide whether he deserves a new offer.

Including players loaned in/out, the club currently boast eight senior centre backs on their books. As many would point out, though, ‘boast’ might be the wrong word. Luiz is by no means the only centre back at Arsenal who has not convinced during his spell in north London. Some of these players will have to be moved on when the season eventually ends, and so re-signing a 33-year-old on big wages seems somewhat counter-intuitive. With whom is he competing for a place in the squad, and how do their statuses differ?

The candidates

The most recent addition to the squad is Pablo Mari, who joined from Flamengo in January on an initial loan deal. He may not stay beyond the summer, but he fact that he was brought in to begin with suggests that the benefit of the doubt will lie with him. He is also the only one of the eight who is predominantly left-footed. He has only played twice to date, but those were the Gunners’ last two games before the enforced break. It will be interesting to see whether he retains his place when the season resumes.

If faith shown in Luiz and Mari by offering them new contracts, it will be a bad sign for Sokratis Papastathopoulos. The rugged centre back has a passion for defending that has made him a popular figure, but his form has dropped in his second season at the Emirates. At 31, he is unlikely to feature in the club’s long-term plans and, though he brings experience, does manager Mikel Arteta need both him and Luiz?

Possibly the most intriguing case is that of Calum Chambers. The first to join of the group, his continued presence would suggest a show of faith from past managers Arsene Wenger and Unai Emery. Conversely, his failure to hold down a first-team place implies that he could be expendable. It seems his versatility has cost him; initially signed as a deputy right back from Southampton in 2014, a loan spell at Middlesbrough in 2016/17 saw him line up in central defence, followed by another season at centre back at Arsenal. He then spent a year at Fulham, where he featured regularly as a defensive midfielder as the club were relegated from the Premier League (although their fans did name him their player of the season). Now 25 and out through injury, it seems his perfect position would be in the right of a back three. Unfortunately for him this does not seem to be Arteta’s system.

The other Englishman in the defensive roster, Rob Holding, has become somewhat of a forgotten man outside the club and its fan base. Up until late 2018, when injury ruled him out for nine months, he was a regular starter in a back three under Emery but has only started one league game this term. However, he has featured in cup competitions and is still only 24, so the momentum he built up in before his layoff can still be recovered.

And what of Shkodran Mustafi? Often the punch line used by opposition fans and Gunners fans alike, the World Cup winner (yep) was once the club’s fourth most expensive signing. Having not made a league appearance under Emery in 2019/20, he returned to the fold under Arteta but blunders continue to blight his performances, most recently against Chelsea. Mari’s arrival has pushed him back down the pecking order.

The only other defender in the club's top ten record signings brings much more excitement. William Saliba was recruited last summer from Saint-Étienne and was immediately loaned back to the French club, where he has continued to feature. Still 19, he would likely have continued his development on loan in a different era but, despite the plethora of defenders at his hands, Arteta probably doesn’t have time to wait. The club’s determination to sign him for £27m mean he is likely to be playing centre back at Arsenal next season.

The eighth is Konstantinos Mavropanos, one of Wenger’s final signings. A 22-year-old, he has spent the second half of season on loan at 2. Bundesliga side Nürnberg. He has only made seven league appearances in two years with the Gunners – none this season.

The stats

It’s a group of eight players all at different stages of their career, not only at the Emirates but overall. All are seeking to impress a manager under whom they have barely played, if at all. This graph compares their key stats this season in all competitions (EFL Cup excluded) with players are arranged by age order.

(It should be noted that the sample size of Mari’s and Holding’s data is far smaller than their team mates’).

With regard to Luiz against Sokratis it is the former who comes out on top. This is somewhat unexpected given the reputation has forged for being more dependable, certainly in comparison to the Brazilian. However, it should be added that while Luiz has been feted for his long passes, only 145 of his 285 long passes have found their target this season (50.9%).

While Mustafi and Holding are head and shoulders above others in terms of aerial duels won (pun intended), they rank in the bottom three for tackle success. This makes grim reading for Holding, whose appearances have mostly been in the Europa League against weaker opposition (or at least weaker than that which Arsenal would like to face). However, as aforementioned his sample size is very low. Meanwhile, Saliba’s passing and tackling ability suggest he could be worth the hype.

The conclusion

Arsenal cannot realistically hope to shift more than three of these players. In short, only Saliba is safe as he is viewed as the club’s future. Usually a new recruit has to prove themselves upon arrival, especially at 19. Here, it seems that his seven new teammates are auditioning to be his partner.

Mustafi’s reputation precedes him, and the fact that Arteta has re-introduced him only to drop him again doesn’t bode well. Aside from winning the ball in the air his stats don’t defy the image of him and, should he not feature regularly in the remainder of the season, then he will probably depart. It is unlikely that Arsenal will recoup anywhere near what they paid for him.

Holding and Chamber’s persistent injury worries could be costly. The latter’s ability to play right back could prove decisive, especially since current back-up Ainsley Maitland-Niles has got on the wrong side of Arteta. Holding, however, does not have the litany of high-profile errors of his teammates, something which could give him the edge.

Mari’s transfer fee is supposedly in the region on just £10m so, should he pass the audition, it is likely that the club would move to keep him. To date his only appearances have come against Portsmouth and West Ham, so upcoming games will give a better indication of his talents (although he did perform well against Liverpool in the Club World Cup Final in December). Should Luiz re-sign as seems likely, then Sokratis could be deemed surplus to requirements. On paper, it would make sense for Manolas to go out on loan or be sold.

The group that Arteta retains might not be the ones that supporters hope for. In fact, given the various contract lengths, high salaries and the volatile transfer market this summer, they might even not be the ones the Spaniard wanted. His profile for the ideal centre back at Arsenal will differ from his predecessors’. The decision he makes will give us an insight into his plans for the club’s future.

Stats via WhoScored.