No fans, no home advantage – what Bundesliga can teach us for when Premier League returns

Home wins have been hard to come by since the German top-flight returned, and English sides must take note for when the Premier League returns.

We’ve almost completed four match weeks since the Bundesliga resumed on May 16. Would it be fair to say that the excitement worn off? Bayern Munich’s victory over Borussia Dortmund in Der Klassiker last Tuesday has relieved any tension that lingered in the title race. In England, at least, it seems the football supporters starved of action are no longer discussing the Bundesliga team to which have temporarily pinned their allegiance.

The novelty of the empty stands, however, remains. The cheers and chants from the famously fervent fans are gone, replaced by coaches’ calls of encouragement and players’ cries. Gone with the supporters, it seems, is home advantage. Thirty-five matches have been played in Germany’s top flight so far, and just eight have resulted in a home win. A quarter of those have happened at the Allianz Arena, where behemoths Bayern have netted five goals against both Frankfurt and Dusseldorf. In contrast, the away side has left with all three points on 17 occasions. Looking at last season’s corresponding fixtures (with relegated teams replacing those promoted), 13 were won by the hosts, with just ten wins for the visitors.

How would Dortmund have fared against Bayern had they been backed by the famous Yellow Wall? Last season they twice came from behind to defeat the champions at Westfalenstadion, but this time around they had no response to Joshua Kimmich’s opener. RB Leipzig have twice faltered at home with draws against Freiburg and Hertha, yet dealt Mainz a 5-0 defeat on their travels. Leverkusen have a 100% record on the road since the Bundesliga’s return, yet fell to a 4-1 defeat at home to Wolfsburg. As well as picking up a point at Leipzig, Hertha have also won at Hoffenheim; last season they lost in both fixtures.

However, it should be noted that in some cases this has been a reflection of teams’ form in general. Hertha have won three of their four games in May, a run only bettered by Bayern. The leaders have been imperious in 2020, and their victory over Dortmund came as a surprise to nobody. Nor did it that Dortmund responded with a resounding 6-1 win away at bottom side Paderborn. Leverkusen were on a winning run before the enforced break and it has continued; coincidentally, three of their four games since have been away from home. Eintracht Frankurt have been a shadow of last season’s edition and have struggled for points both home and away. Ditto Schalke, whose defeat at home to relegation-threatened Bremen on Saturday raised eyebrows. However, Bremen had been victorious on four of their previous five visits to the Veltins-Arena. Nonetheless, prior to the break the number of home wins stood at 43.3%, almost double the rate since (22.9%).

What can we expect when the Premier League players take to the pitch in the summer? As in Germany, when English football returns on June 17, the stands will be empty. Up until March 13, when English football was suspended, 44.8% of this season’s Premier League matches had resulted in a win for the home side, (just 30.2% had ended in an away victory). These numbers are very similar to results in the Bundesliga until March, by which point 78 away wins had been recorded this season (34.8%).

Liverpool are still pushing to be the first side to win all 19 home games in a Premier League campaign, having racked up 15 so far. Their fans will not be able to cheer them on in the remaining four but, despite Jurgen Klopp’s reiteration that it is the Anfield faithful that give his players strength, they have managed without them on their travels. Instead, it will be a pity that the supporters will not be there to witness the moment that the Reds mathematically seal the title after a 30-year wait. The absence of fans in the ground could in fact give them an advantage when they travel to Manchester City for what should be their toughest game of the season on paper. Jokes about the empty seats at the Etihad have long circulated, but City could certainly do with the help of their fans when Klopp’s side roll into town.

Likewise, Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium is often derided for a lack of atmosphere when the team is out of sorts, but that’s not always the case. Just ask Granit Xhaka. The Gunners have largely relied in on their home form in recent years, with 15 wins in the 2017/18 season and 14 in 2018/19. This tumultuous campaign has seen them win seven of their 15 games there. How will Mikel Arteta’s side fare now? Will the players relax without the pressure from the restless fans, or will they miss the renewed optimism that Arteta’s arrival brought?

It’s a shame, too, that their first North London Derby at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium will only be witnessed by skeleton coaching staff. Jose Mourinho will have his excuses at the ready should it end in defeat for the hosts and, in this instance, he would be within his rights. Tottenham have so far lost their first games against local rivals West Ham and Chelsea on their new turf, and fans would have been keen to see that run potentially end against the Gunners.

This season West Ham find themselves involved in a fight to avoid relegation, currently sitting above the drop zone on goal difference alone. Granted, the London Stadium has not offered the same home comfort as the Boleyn Ground, but David Moyes’ side would have been grateful for vocal support when fellow strugglers Watford and Aston Villa visit. These are not the only games where it will matter, though. The games against stronger teams suddenly seem more daunting. Brighton, just two points from the bottom three, take on Arsenal and Manchester United in their next games at the Amex. The Seagulls have taken ten points from four home games these two since their promotion in 2017. Can they expect similar results without their fans cheering them on?

Perhaps teams in the Bundesliga will acclimatise and find new advantages in their familiar home surroundings. It could be the routine in the dressing room, the walk down the tunnel or simply the dimensions of the pitch. It has been said that the Bundesliga is being used as a blueprint for other football competitions and, while this has largely related to their strategy in dealing with Covid-19, the lack of atmosphere in the games has not gone unnoticed either. When the Premier League returns in a fortnight, the form it shall take will not be what anybody wanted, especially under such terrible circumstances. The teams that adapt the quickest will wrestle the advantage and we will see who thrives most. This is a rare opportunity to glimpse top-level players rely on talent and self-motivation alone. It may not be exciting, but there is surely something intriguing at least.

“What is football without the fans?”

Let’s find out.