How Leicester City's luck ran out

A common cliché in football is that it can be a “game of two halves”; a team’s fortunes can totally transform in moments, and it’s often difficult to put one’s finger on the reason. It can be said that the 2019/20 Premier League campaign has, for Leicester City, been a season of two halves.

Back in December the Midlands club had won 12 of their first 16 games, three more than they had managed in the same period of their title-winning campaign in 2016. Rather than relying on counter-attacking play, Brendan Rodgers had seemingly forged a side comfortable both with and without the ball. The Foxes were on Liverpool’s tail at the top of the table, while striker Jamie Vardy was a clear front-runner for the Golden Boot with 16 goals in as many matches.

It’s been a very different story since. Exactly 16 games later, Leicester have won just four times in the Premier League and, although they have only slipped to third, a heavy defeat to Crystal Palace on Saturday could see them drop down to sixth by the same evening.

What has gone wrong in such a short space of time, and can the slide be arrested before the season’s end?

Vardy’s struggles in front of goal

Vardy’s record against England’s biggest teams has long impressed, but in the opening half of this season every team had reason to be fearful. As one of the few remaining members of the 2016 squad, the former Fleetwood forward has proven that he can do more than just sprint beyond a high defensive line. Sixteen goals in the first 16 games put him clear at the top of the scoring charts.

However, 13 appearances later he has only converted three more chances, with two of those arriving as a substitute in March’s win over Aston Villa. Vardy is a talisman for the club, but he cannot do it alone. In 2016 Riyad Mahrez added 17 goals alongside Vardy’s 24; this time around Ayoze Pérez is Leicester’s next-highest scorer with seven. If the number nine is not firing, who else will step up?

Maddison’s waning influence

The acquisition of James Maddison from Norwich in 2018 was seen as the latest example of Leicester’s smart recruitment. The midfielder hit the ground running with a respectable seven goals in his maiden season in the top-flight, establishing himself as a key player for both Claude Puel and Rodgers. He began this campaign in equally fine form, contributing five goals and three assists in the Foxes’ first 16 matches.

Sixteen games on, the England international has added just one more goal to his tally and has not found the net since New Year’s Day. While his average number of touches per league start has not fallen significantly (75.8 to 68), his other stats paint a clearer picture. In the opening 16 games he attempted an average of 3.8 dribbles and 2.8 shots per start; since then, his numbers are 1.8 and 2 respectively.

Alongside Vardy, Maddison is regarded as a major threat for Leicester, and rightly so. However, he has not offered the same attacking impetus in recent months.

Defensive woes

While Claudio Ranieri’s title-winning team took seven games to record their first clean sheet, the current crop managed it on the opening weekend against Wolves. Six more clean sheets followed in the ensuing 15 games, during which they conceded just ten goals. Even leaders Liverpool only managed three shut-outs in the same period, shipping 14 goals in the process. The departure of Harry Maguire barely registered as Jonny Evans and Çağlar Söyüncü formed a formidable partnership in central defence.

The duo have played every minute of all but one of Leicester’s games since, but with different results. Rodgers’ side have conceded a further 21 goals in the same amount of time, over double the number in the opening period. Kasper Schmeichel has kept just four clean sheets. Youngster James Justin has been introduced at full back on several occasions but, even when regulars Ricardo Pereira and Ben Chilwell have been selected, the goals have flown in nonetheless.

Squad rotation

One of the Leicester’s key strengths in the first four months of the season was a settled first 11. Harvey Barnes and new signing Pérez were regular starters alongside Vardy and Maddison in attack, while Wilfred Ndidi and Youri Tielemans sat in front of the established back four. Rodgers made a total of just 16 changes to his team line-up in the 15 matches that followed the opening draw against Wolves. Furthermore, during the heart of the Foxes’ winning run the same starting 11 played five games in a row.

In the 16 games since, Rodgers has made a total of 44 changes to his personnel. On only one occasion has he named an unchanged side, while he has made exactly three alterations in each of Leicester’s last six outings. While Justin has been the only common change in defence, now deputising for the injured Pereira, it has been further forward where the disruptions have been felt. Over the Christmas period Rodgers made eight and six changes against West Ham and Newcastle respectively; such a move was understandable given the fixture congestion and the Foxes ran out winners on both occasions. However, he has experimented with a 3-5-2 formation on other occasions with mixed fortunes.

Ranieri shrugged off his ‘Tinkerman’ tag in 2016 and his team found the consistency to deliver an unlikely title. Whether it be due to player fatigue or simply an attempt to find a solution to Leicester’s problems, Rodgers’ alternative approach isn’t working.

The luck runs out

Their first mis-step came in Matchweek 17 when they could only draw at home to relegation-threatened Norwich, after which they had the misfortune to face Manchester City and Liverpool in successive matches. Defeats in both of those were followed by the Christmas period which, despite victories over West Ham and Newcastle, halted any momentum that Rodgers’ preferred starting line-up had developed.

The number of alterations that Rodgers has made since have clearly not aided his side’s efforts. However, he is not the only manager who has had to juggle his assets due to injury, cup competitions and fitness issues since the season resumed. His side, though, are the only one in the Premier League top half without a win since the break.

Prior to that watershed moment against Norwich, Vardy had converted 16 of his 41 attempts on goals, at a rate of one every 2.6 shots. Only three of his 22 efforts since have found the net (one in 7.3). While he is taking fewer shots, his efficiency (or lack of it) must be highlighted. He could not be expected to maintain such an initial impressive strike rate, and he hasn’t.

Likewise, Leicester have not faced many more shots in the last 16 games, yet more are beating Schmeichel. On average they have allowed 1.5 more shots per game (179 in the latest 16 games compared to 155 beforehand) but 41 of those can be attributed to Manchester City alone (only four of which resulted in a goal). The fact that only ten of those first 155 shots found the net was, frankly, remarkable. As with Vardy's conversion rate, this simply wasn't sustainable across an entire campaign.

What next for Leicester?

Fans will be hoping that Vardy can rediscover his scoring touch against the established ‘Big Six’. The Foxes' remaining games include trips to Arsenal and Tottenham before they host Manchester United on the final day. They have already beaten the former two sides this season on home turf but, with only one away win in all competitions since January 1st, a repeat seems a tough ask. Returning to a strongest line-up (minus Pereira) would be a good start though.

The comfortable lead that Rodgers’ side built up in the first half of the season has almost evaporated. Manchester City’s ban on European football could mean that fifth place is enough to qualify for a Champions League spot next season, but even that isn’t assured right now. If Leicester cannot find a solution, and fast, then it will be former Fox Maguire celebrating at the King Power on the final day.

Stats via WhoScored.